Zeping Macro: Social Finance M2 bottoms out and widens currency
Social financial M2 bottomed out, wide currency and wide credit effective-January 2019 financial data reviewIt is expected to be RMB 3 trillion, with a previous value of RMB 108 billion.
China ‘s January social financing scale increased by 4.64 trillion yuan, with an expected value of 330.7 billion yuan.
China’s January M2 money supply for a decade8.
4%, expected 8.
2%, the previous value was 8.
The main text 1, core points: 1) In January, the social financial credit data exceeded expectations, and social financial, M2 and credit data bottomed out, which is in line with our first quarter quarterly financial financial rebound.
It is expected that the growth rate of social financing will continue to appreciate, but the magnitude is not large; 2) The early wide currency and wide credit policy has begun to take effect; 3) financing structural problems still exist, especially the relatively high proportion of bill financing, indicating that commercial banks’ risk appetite is not highhigh.
Credit credentials are not good, and policies need to be continued. 4) Monetary and financial data are leading, and the bottom of the policy is ahead of the bottom of the economy.
We maintain our previous judgment: the economic outlook in the middle of 2019 bottomed out twice, the best investment opportunity is in China, the new cycle.
In February and January, the growth rate of social financing rebounded faster than expected to 10.
4%, RMB loans are still the main force to support the growth rate of social finance.
In addition, bill financing reached record highs, regulatory margins were relaxed and non-standard financing resumed from negative to positive. Fiscal efforts pushed local issuance of special debt to accelerate, and marginal bond financing promoted the growth of cooperative financial institutions to grow faster than expected.
The growth rate of social financing rebounded faster than expected, and the margin of physical financing growth improved.
New social financing scale was added in January 4.
64 trillion yuan, an increase of more than ten years.
56 trillion, a growth rate of 10
4%, stopped the revolution for 14 consecutive months, an unexpected rebound, and the marginal improvement of the real economy’s financing prospects.
From a structural point of view, RMB loans are still the main force to support the growth rate of social financing. The market for bills is booming. Overlapping regulatory policies have loosened margins, which has led to entrusted loans. The margin of trust loans has improved, and non-standard financing has turned from negative to positive.
Regarding on-balance sheet financing, gradually increasing restrictions on RMB loans3.
23 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 330 billion U.S. dollars in one year, supporting the rebound of social financing; in terms of off-balance sheet financing, January and on-balance-sheet bill financing hit a record high, bill financing and undiscounted bank acceptance bills totaled 894.6 billion, accounting for 19% of social financing.
3%, up 13 from the previous.
In January, the margin of trust loans improved, and the margin of trust loans improved by 1.5 billion over the same period, -109.
800 million, the overall off-balance sheet financing from negative to positive, in January off-balance sheet financing was 343.2 billion, an increase of 2253 earlier.
800 million yuan; budget and fiscal efforts to promote the rapid issuance of special local debt; under the broad credit policy, market interest rates have fallen, bond financing has warmed up, and social financing has rebounded.
With the implementation of fiscal policies, local special debt was issued to January in advance, with reasonable and sufficient alternating liquidity, market interest rates fell, and bond market confidence restored. In January, local special debt was increased by US $ 108.8 billion, and corporate bonds were US $ 499 billion, respectively.Increased by 108.8 billion and 3767.
700 million, supporting the growth rate of social finance.
3. Reduce factors and expand broad credit policies to drive bank credit volume. The proportion of medium and long-term corporate loans exceeds that of residential loans. The marginal structure of loans has improved, but the impulse for bills is still significant, and bank risk substitution remains to be improved.
Short-term factors combined with the easing of credit policies drove the bank’s credit volume and increased RMB loans by 333 billion yuan.
New RMB loans in January 20193.
23 trillion yuan, an increase of 330 billion yuan a year.
Short-term and early-term long-term credit policies support banks to provide financing for SMEs, driving bank credit volume; restructuring, affected by seasonal factors, banks resumed preferential loans to high-quality customers in the early stage.Financing needs were also released in one month.
From a structural point of view, the proportion of long-term and medium-term corporate loans exceeds that of residential loans. The margin of corporate vitality has increased, and the margin of loan structure has improved, but it is still dominated by short-term and bill financing, reflecting that bank risk substitution is still decreasing.
In January, the household sector loan increased by 989.8 billion yuan, and the corporate sector increased by 2.
58 trillion yuan, of which, corporate long-term loans1.
4 trillion yuan, accounting for 43 new yuan loans.
3%, which is 25 units higher than the previous month, but is reduced by 2 every year.The five subdivisions reflect the increased margin of corporate vitality and improved loan structure, but still lower than the same period.
The current increase in RMB loans is mainly short-term, with one-month short-term loans and bill financing of US $ 14.0009 billion, a multiplication of US $ 680.6 billion, indicating that bank risk substitution is still being supplemented and the continuity of the effect of the wide credit policy remains to be further observed.
4. The growth rate of M2 rebounded and reached a new high in the past six months. The growth gap of M2-M1 continued to widen and was affected by the factors affecting the Spring Festival. The substitution also showed that the enterprise was not viable.
The M2 money supply has grown at a rate of eight in ten years.
4%, an increase of 0 from December 2018.
Three digits, a new high since July 2018.
Fiscal policy was in force. Fiscal deposits increased by 533.7 billion in one month, and 447.2 billion less in one year. Tax reductions brought about by the active fiscal background led to a reduction in tax payments, pushing up M2 growth rate by 0.
The growth rate of M1 gradually decreases to zero.
4%, the growth rate of M2-M1 continued to widen, mainly due to a few factors. The Spring Festival in 2019 was advanced to the beginning of February, which resulted in a high increase in household deposits in one month. The timing of the payment of corporate salary bonuses was advanced.It also shows that the vitality of the enterprise is still insufficient.
5. Supervision policies continued to be implemented to reduce overall standards, support commercial banks in replenishing capital, guide banks to optimize credit structures, and support the rebound in social financing growth.
From the perspective of policy budget, the development of monetary and financial policies is an important factor in exceeding financial data expectations.
First, there are four targeted reductions in 2018 each year, and the full reduction in January 2019 to maintain a reasonable and adequate market liquidity. Second, from December 2018 to February 2019, multiple channels are used to support commercial banks to supplement capital.To ensure that banks have sufficient capital, so that more funds will be invested in the real economy; third, since the second half of 2018, changes have taken place, and mergers and acquisitions by regulatory agencies such as the CBRC have guided commercial banks to optimize loan structures and support small and micro enterprises and private enterprise financingPromote the continuous improvement of the loan structure.
6, bill financing is hot, but can only temporarily suspend corporate short-term financing needs, and bill arbitrage does not have long-term nature, it is difficult to drive structural deposit interest rates continue to fall.
Liquidity is reasonable and plentiful, and the interest rate on the money market has fallen, which has driven down the interest rate on bills.
In 2018, the RRR cut was made 4 times a year, and refinancing was increased and re-discounted. In January 2019, the RRR cut was comprehensive. The interbank liquidity was reasonable and abundant, and the money market interest rate fell, driving the bill financing interest rate from 5 in March 2018.
58% reformed to 4 in September.
In bond financing and loans, the interest rate advantage of bill financing is prominent, which has given rise to the hot phenomenon of bill financing since 2018.
Banks have low risk appetite, short bill financing terms, strong liquidity, low risk, and meet bank needs.
In addition to the overall liquidity factor, most of the notes have a maturity of 6 months, short maturity, strong liquidity, and bank credit guarantees or corporate credit endorsements, risk returns, which are in line with the bank’s low risk appetite for 2018-2019, so they are also subject to businessBank favorite.
The proportion of bill financing in new loans increased from 1 in January 2018.
2% rose to 31 in December 2018.
There is room for arbitrage between bill interest rates and bank wealth management, structured deposits, and large deposit certificates.
Due to the decline in the direct interest rate of bills and redistribution, there is an objective interest margin between products such as bank wealth management, structured deposits, and large certificates of deposit. Enterprises have the incentive to use discounted funds to purchase deposit products and earn interest margins.
For example, on January 20, 2019, the expected return of a six-month wealth management product replaces 4.
4%, while the direct interest rate on notes over the same period was only 2.
About 9%, the rediscount rate is only 2.
6%, the company has 150 arbitrage space.
For enterprises, bill financing can partially solve their short-term financing problems, but bill financing tends to be short-term and has limited support for long-term fixed investment.
In the period when the downward pressure on the economy is intensifying and the risks of banks are increasing, bill financing has a relatively high cost and relatively short cost. It can supplement the company’s operating capital, repay the remaining debt or settle, etc. to meet the short-term financing needs of the company.
However, short-term bill financing, limited support for the long-term investment expansion of enterprises, there is no long-term sustainability, and unblocking monetary policy channels is still the key.
As for the market interest rate, liquidity is reasonable and sufficient, and the continuous impulse of overlapping bills is expected to drive the decline of bank deposits, structured deposits, large deposit certificates and other broad-spectrum interest rates, but it is also not worthy of sustainability.
At least, there have been five RRR cuts each year since 2018, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the market, and solving the problem of difficult financing for private enterprises. It is expected that monetary policy will continue to be guided by broad credit, so that money market interest rates will drive a broad-spectrum interest rate decline;The current behavior of companies using bill arbitrage will expand the supply of bank wealth management, structured deposits or large certificates of deposit, and drive banks to lower the structured deposit interest rate, which is also not long-lasting.
7. We expect that social financing will stabilize and pick up in the first quarter, but the magnitude will be small.
Monetary and monetary policies are loose, and alternative channels are gradually unblocked, but not flooding; the main force of restructuring and social financing is still on-balance sheet loans, and the key lies in the unblocking of alternative channels for currency.
The growth rate of social financing in January was 10.
4%, which verifies the judgment of the Air Force’s social financing growth rate in the first quarter.
We expect that the growth rate of social financing in the first quarter of 2019 will continue to rebound, but the intensity is not great: first, the low social financing base in 2018, and gradually laying the foundation for the recovery of social financing growth in the first quarter of 2019; second, alternative monetary policyLoose but not flooding, the scale of unblocking monetary policy is still the key, so it will not cause obvious credit placement. Third, in terms of social financing, on-balance sheet loans are still the main force of social financing.Considering the main factors, the scale of new loans from March to March will return to normal, corporate debt will grow steadily, local special debt will expand and grow steadily, bill financing will not be sustainable, and off-balance-sheet financing will not rebound, so we expect the first quarterThe growth rate of social financing rebounded little.
8. The growth rate of M2 was roughly 2 quarters ahead of GDP growth rate. Social integration, M2 growth rate stabilized and rebounded, which verified our decision to determine the second bottom of the economic growth rate in mid-2019, and the economy sought to stabilize in the second half of the year.
With the continuous development of monetary and financial policies, the growth of social finance and M2 has stabilized and rebounded. It is expected that the economy will achieve a second bottom in the middle of 2019 and is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year.
Generally speaking, monetary policy has a time lag, so the policy bottom usually appears ahead of the economic bottom.
From the perspective of monetary and financial policies, the current monetary and financial policies continue to exert force to promote economic stability. From the perspective of financial data, the growth rate of M2 bottomed out in one month. According to historical experience, after the M2 currency is released, the real economy needs roughly twoThe quarterly time is internalized, so M2 growth rate is roughly 2 quarters ahead of GDP growth rate.
In addition, combined with the reduction in the PMI and the decline in the non-manufacturing employment index, we judge that the current economy is in the “L-shaped” bottoming period of “growth and shifting”. It will achieve a second bottom in the middle of 2019 and the second half of the yearHope to stabilize.
9. The deep-seated problems and prominent contradictions in the economic and financial fields are still credit deficiencies. Under the condition that external pressure margins have slowed down, monetary policy should increase countercyclical cyclical hedging, focus on unblocking monetary policy measures, and solve corporate financing difficulties.
Recently, monetary and financial policies have increased support for private and small and micro enterprises, and all efforts have been made to alleviate the financing contradictions of private and small and micro enterprises, and support for the financing, private bonds, and equity of the “three arrows” of private enterprises.
These long-term and long-term indirect financing are the prerequisites to truly achieve effective support for private and small and micro enterprises. We need to pay more attention to the small and medium-sized bank population. We recommend: 1) On the basis of promoting the return of small and medium-sized banks to their origins, further strengthen monetary policy.Support from small and medium-sized banks.
In the context of a certain structured commercial bank credit in developing countries, small and medium-sized banks are an important force in supporting private and small and micro enterprises in terms of their natural attributes, advantages, and experience.
The support for monetary policy in the early period is biased towards major medium-sized banks. For small and medium-sized banks, rediscounting and refinancing are mainly used.
In January 2019, a preliminary announcement was made of a “full-scale reduction”, a reduction of the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by one conversion, and a conversion announcement of inclusive finance ‘s targeted reduction.”” Adjusted to “Single-family credit is less than 10 million”, expand coverage coverage, and include more small and medium banks.
2) Tolerance of non-performing loans to commercial banks has been expanded, and previous due diligence has been removed.
There are three major steps from “wide money” to “wide credit”. One is the supply of funds, the other is the intention to lend, and the third is the demand for money.
In the spring of 2018, the RRR cut was made four times and the net investment was 2.
3 trillion yuan of funds, the inter-bank market liquidity is loose.
However, the second step is not smooth. Due to the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the credit risk of private and small and micro enterprises has accumulated, the risk appetite of commercial banks has decreased, and the impact of strict supervision of alternative finance.On the red line, commercial banks are putting more energy on risk mitigation and poor disposal, and they are more prudent and careful in lending.
Future financial policies can explore differentiated regulatory policies and appropriately increase the tolerance of non-performing loans to small and micro enterprises.
At the same time, the grassroots credit personnel were temporarily exempted from their duties, reformed the non-performing loan assessment mechanism, and increased business enthusiasm.
3) Continue to innovate capital supplementary tools for commercial banks.
Such listed banks can choose to supplement their capital with preferred stocks, fixed-increasing shares, and convertible bonds. Capital supplemented bonds are the most important choice for unlisted small and medium banks.
Since 2018, the regulator has successively issued documents to support the addition of capital replenishment tools, facilitate the issuance method, and expand the investor base. The Finance Committee recently convened a special meeting to study multi-channel support for commercial banks to supplement capital, and launched the issuance of perpetual bonds as soon as possible.
In the future, it is necessary to further formulate a consensus policy, expand the core capital replenishment channels of small and medium banks, expand the investor base, and substantially increase the capital replenishment capacity of small and medium banks.
4) Monetary and financial supervision policies should not be “one size fits all”, restore legal and compliant non-standard financing functions, and ease financing interruption.
The main reason for the obvious contraction in the growth rate of broad money supply since 2018 is the cliff-type displacement of non-standard financing.
Although non-standard financing has increased the financing chain, in the case of low risk appetite of the internal indirect financing system and slow development of direct financing, non-standard financing as an important transition has objectively eased the pressure on financing of private enterprises.
Recently, President Yi Gang mentioned in his speech that “regulated shadow banking is a necessary supplement to the financial market”. In the future, relevant policies should be issued as soon as possible to clarify the scope of non-standard financing, and support legal and compliant non-standard restoration of financing functions.
5) Activate the capital market, restore the stock market financing function, and promote the implementation of the science and technology board and registration system.
The continuous decline of A shares and the previous equity pledge risk have reduced the financing function of the stock market, which is not conducive to the increase in the proportion of direct financing and the financing of high-risk innovative enterprises.
The Politburo meeting on October 31, 2018 focused on “revolving around capital market reforms, strengthening institutional construction, stimulating market vitality, and promoting long-term healthy development of the capital market.
“In the future, we must activate the capital market, promote the implementation of the science and technology board and the registration system, and promote more small and micro enterprises. Innovative companies should use the GEM, the New Third Board, and the 深圳桑拿网 science and technology board to raise funds to strengthen institutional design. First, we must establish marketization.The stock issuance system and registration system should establish a market-based delisting mechanism, establish a strict information disclosure system, and increase the level of supervision and supervision after the event; the second is to improve the structure of investors and the proportion of institutional investors; the third is to improveThe design of the trading system further regulates the suspension of the company’s trading and cancels the stamp duty on stock transactions. The fourth is to improve the legal system, increase the deterrent effect of supervision, and significantly increase the cost of illegal crimes.