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銆 愭 哭 姣 咈 全 咨 储 銆 共 姘 存 嘝 _ 許 庝 箞 钖 僟 忡 悍 綍 钖?
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I’m struggling to drill down, I’m afraid that my father is in the realm of the world, and I’m sorry, I’m not alone, I’m not going to do it, I’m not doing it, I’m not doing it, I’m not doing itIf you want to go to the tank, you can’t use it. You don’t have to worry about it. You can’t do it. You can’t do it. You can’t do it. Do you want to do it?曚娇鐢ㄦ墠鏈夋晥鍛紵 涓€銆佹€庢牱鐢ㄩ奔鑵ヨ崏娌荤枟婀跨柟 楸艰叆鑽夊彲浠ユ不鐤楁箍鐤癸紝鎴戜滑鍙互灏嗛奔鑵ヨ崏鏀惧叆寮€姘撮噷锛岀敤灏忕伀鐔ぇ姒傚崐涓皬鏃跺乏鍙筹紝鐒跺悗绛夊埌鐓ソ鐨勬按鍑夊埌娓╃儹鐨勬椂鍊欙紝灏卞彲浠ョ敤鏉ユ礂婢℃垨鑰呮暦鍦ㄦ箍鐤圭殑鍦版柟銆傞奔鑵ヨ崏鐨勫姛鏁堟湁寰堝锛岄奔鑵ヨ崏鍏锋湁姝㈠挸銆佹琛€銆侀晣鐥涚瓑鍔熸晥锛屽彟澶栬繕鍙互淇冭繘缁勭粐鍐嶇敓銆佹墿寮犳瘺缁嗚绠＄瓑鏂归潰鐨勪綔鐢ㄣ€傚彟澶栭奔鑵ヨ崏涓惈鏈変赴瀵岀殑楸艰叆鑽夌礌锛岃繖鍏锋湁鎶楄弻鍔熸晥锛岀壒鍒槸瀵瑰崱浠栫悆鑿屻€佹祦鎰熸潌鑿屻€佽偤鐐庣悆鑿屻€侀噾榛What’s the matter? What’s the matter? What’s the matter?浜屻€侀奔鑵ヨ崏鍙互娌荤枟鐥樼棙鍚?楸艰叆鑽夊彲浠ユ不鐤楃棙鐥樺悧锛熷彲浠ワ紝鎴戜滑鍙互鐢ㄩ奔鑵ヨ崏鏉ユ不鐤楃棙鐥樸€傛垜浠潵鐪嬩竴涓嬪晩鍏蜂綋鍋氭硶锛?銆佹垜浠彲浠ュ厛灏嗛奔鑵ヨ崏娲楀共鍑€鍐嶆斁鍏ラ攨涓紝鍙﹀鍐嶅姞鍏?00姣崌鐨勬竻姘达紝鐓紑鍚庡啀杞皬鐏叜20鍒嗛挓锛屾渶濂藉彇铏戞恫褰撹尪鍠濄€?銆佸悓鏃舵垜浠繕闇€瑕佺敤鐢ㄩ矞楸艰叆鑽夎寧鍙?00: What’s wrong? What’s wrong? What?0 闒 嗛 撓 咓 库 咓 咓 咲 楀 咓 姃 姃 Umbrella 镙 锋 澶 澶 ╅Ton?Mastiff?娆°€?涓夈€侀奔鑵ヨ崏鐨勪綔鐢ㄤ笌绂佸繉 楸艰叆鑽夛紝鎴戜滑瀵瑰畠閮戒笉闄岀敓锛岄偅涔堥奔鑵ヨ崏鐨勫姛鏁堝拰绂佸繉锛屼綘鐭ラ亾鍚楋紵鍏跺疄楸艰叆鑽夌殑鍔熸晥鏈夊緢澶氾紝瀹冪殑鍛抽亾鍛宠緵锛岃€屼笖鎬у瘨鍑夈€Sorry, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it.鐨勫姛鏁堛€傞奔鑵ヨ崏鐨勫姛鏁堟湁寰堝锛屽彲鏄篃涓嶆槸鎵€鏈変汉閮介€傚疁鏈嶇敤楸艰叆鑽夌殑锛屾湁涓€浜涗汉鏄笉閫傚疁鏈嶇敤楸艰叆鑽夌殑锛屼緥濡備竴浜涗綋璐ㄨ櫄瀵掔殑锛屼互鍙婄枖鐤偪鐤″睘闃村瘨锛屾棤绾㈣偪鐑棝鑰呭繉椋熴€?
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Xinhecheng (002001): Changes in performance caused by changes in product prices Under construction and planning projects contain huge growth momentum
The event company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 quarterly report on the evening of April 28, 2019.
Annual Report 2018: Reports that sustainable companies achieved revenue 86.
8 ‰, a 39% increase in ten years; net profit attributable to mothers to be achieved 30.
8 ‰, an increase of 81% in ten years; net profit after deduction to non-returned mother 28.
9 ‰, an increase of 75% in ten years; net cash flow from operating activities was 36.
6 trillion, an increase of 177% in ten years; the expected average ROE of 20 was achieved.
5%, rising by 0 every year.
2019 first quarter report: 2019Q1 company achieved revenue of 18.
4 ‰, an average of 40% over ten years; net profit attributable to mothers was achieved5.
1 ‰, with a ten-year average growth rate of 66%; net profit after deduction for non-returning mothers4.
USD 800 million, an average of 68% over ten years; net cash flow from operating activities2.
$ 500 million, compared to a previous budget of 35%; achieving expected average return on net assets3.
11%, more than ten years.
Dividend: 10 shares of the company’s proposed enzyme will be paid out 7.
00 yuan, a total of about 1.5 billion yuan in dividends.
A brief comment on the increase in product prices led to a significant increase in 18 performance, and a higher base caused the company’s performance growth from 19Q1 to 2018, mainly due to the impact of the BASF accident at the end of 2017 leading to the increase in VA, VE and flavor and fragrance prices, VA, VE The average prices in 2018 were 701 and 59 yuan / kg, which increased by 100% and 6% over 2017, 四川耍耍网 respectively.
The increase was especially the highest in the first quarter of 2018. The average price of VA and VE in 2018Q1 was as high as 1,348 yuan and 108 yuan / kg, all at historical highs.
The company’s Q1-4 single-quarter results were 14 respectively.
At 4 ppm, Q1 contributed nearly half of its annual performance in a single quarter.
Affected by rising product prices, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2018 was 53.
4%, an increase of 2 per year.
9 units; gross profit 46.
4 ‰, an increase of 14 in ten years.
In terms of period expenses, the reported scale company sales, management + R & D, and financial expenses are 2 respectively.
200 million, change 19%, 35%, -84% each year.
The reported company’s R & D expenses increased by 36%, and 佛山桑拿网 the number of R & D personnel increased by 52%, indicating that the company’s R & D efforts have continued to increase.
In terms of cash flow, the company’s current net ratio of reported performance is 118% and 95% respectively, and it has increased by 44 and 15 ratios at the same time. The significant increase in current net ratio is mainly due to the significant increase in accounts payable:Account balance 13.
80,000 yuan, an increase of 39% in ten years.
The company’s performance in the first quarter of 2019 deviated, mainly due to the high base in Q1 of 2018. From the point of view of 19Q1 and 18Q4, the changes in revenue, net profit attributable to non-net profit, and deducted non-net profit were -7%,6%, + 3%, the change is basically stable.
The projects under construction and planning contain huge growth momentum, and the projects under construction have begun to show huge profits from 2017 to 2018, which has enabled the company to accumulate substantial capital. The company’s book cash at the end of the 2019Q1 reporting period was approximately 26.0 million yuan, other current assets of about 46.
600 million, a total of 72.
The rich cash reserves and the company’s estimated annual net cash flow of more than US $ 2 billion enable the company to invest in a large number of new projects. According to our statistics, since the beginning of 2018, the company’s total investment in new EIA projects has exceeded 20 billion.The US dollar, huge growth momentum is brewing.
At the end of the 2019Q1 reporting period, the company had 48 projects under construction.
700 million, the ratio of construction in progress / fixed assets reached 92%, which is considerable for Xinhecheng with a market value of 41.1 billion.
The structure of VA oligomeric urethane dandruff is gradually stabilized, the bargaining power is increased, and the price has entered a new era. Due to the complex process of vitamin A synthesis, high technical barriers, difficult to enter machinery, and alternate supply side reforms, the oligopoly scalp in the industry has gradually increased and stabilized.CR4 is currently as high as 78%.
We judge that vitamin A prices have entered a new era, and around 300 yuan has become a new bottom area.
VA prices continued to decrease at the end of 2018. It is expected that dealers’ inventory is low, and the increase in the concentration of more industries has significantly improved the bargaining power of oligarchs. On April 9, the price replaced 285 yuan / kg on April 10.VA manufacturers collectively stopped reporting, prices rebounded rapidly, and eventually stabilized at around 365 yuan / kg before DSM stopped production.
We believe that the VA industry has entered a new era after undergoing supply-side reforms and BASF accidents. Around 300 yuan has become a new price bottom area. In fact, after the BASF accident, the time when the VA price was below 300 yuan has never exceeded 1 Months.
On April 25th, market news said that DSM’s Swiss factory suspended production for 2-3 months due to contaminated strains of wastewater treatment. During this period, VA products were suspended from reporting.
Affected by this news, the VA quote increased from 360-390 yuan / kg to 370-400 yuan / kg.
DSM has a total capacity of about 7,500 tons of vitamin A. There are two production bases in Switzerland and Shanghai. The production of vitamin A oil in the Shanghai base is 600 tons, and the production capacity of vitamin A powder is 1,560 tons. It can be estimated that the production of vitamin A in the Swiss base is about 4,000 tons, accounting for global vitaminA total capacity is about 10%.
Although the swine fever has affected the demand side to some extent, according to our calculations, about 34% of downstream Virginia is used for pig feed, and the domestic pig inventory has been reduced by 19%, which has an impact on the domestic VA demand side of about 6.
5%, the global impact is expected to be less than 4%, the distance between the demand side is far less than the impact of DSM production suspension on the supply side, the DSM production suspension will bring further increase in VA prices.
The Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation on methionine, and the price bottomed out. On April 10, 2019, the Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation on methionine (methionine) originating in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan.
Almost all methionine capacity in Asia is concentrated in China, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia.
According to our calculations, the current maximum internal methionine output is about 34 euros. Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia have 23, 15, and 8 substitutions respectively. The current capacity of anti-dumping regions for methionine is 46 substitutions, accounting for 59% in Asia and 24% in the world.
In terms of new production capacity, in 2018, Sumitomo Japan for 10 years, Evonik Singapore for 15-2019 and 2020, and Citi Malaysia 8 in 2020 were in the anti-dumping investigation area.
Since February 2017, the price of solid methionine has basically remained below the bottom of 25 yuan / kg. After April 2018, it fell below the 20 yuan / kg mark and once fell to 17 yuan / kg.On April 9, solid methionine dropped to 16.
9 yuan / kg, a record low.
Such prices have approached the cost red line of some manufacturers. Under the circumstances that the price is in a downward channel for a long time, the probability of dealers’ inventory is also at a high level. Therefore, as soon as the anti-dumping news comes out, the price will immediately bottom out. The current price of solid eggs and liquid eggs is 19.
0 yuan / kg, an increase of 2 compared with before anti-dumping.
5 yuan / kg.
The first phase of the company’s 5-crystal methionine project was successfully trial-produced in January 2017. In July 2017, the second phase was fully achieved. 10 Phase 10 is expected to start construction in 2018 and is expected to start production in 2019-2020. Phase 3 15 is expected to start production in 2021.
By then, the company’s production capacity of methionine will reach 30.
It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019 and 2020 will be 26 respectively.
4 ‰, corresponding to 15, 12 times of PE, maintaining the overweight rating.
Wanrun Co., Ltd. (002643): Steady growth in performance and internal volume put into production trying to open up growth space
The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved operating income in the first half of the year12.
9.3 billion, previously +1.
18%; net profit attributable to mother 2.
3.1 billion, previously +19.
63%; net profit after deducting non-attribution to mother 2.
2.3 billion, previously +17.
37%; budget benefit is 0.
Q2 achieved revenue of 6 in a single quarter.
3.1 billion, previously +1.
58%; net profit attributable to mother 1.
2.9 billion, +0 in ten years.
The company’s overseas revenue accounted for 88 in the first half of the year.
52%, product sales are mostly settled in U.S. dollars, benefiting from the depreciation of Renminbi and lower costs, the comprehensive gross profit margin in the first half of the year was 42.
14%, ten years +5.
The three fee ratio (including R & D expenses) is 20.
39%, ten years +2.
53pct, of which financial costs +1394.
370,000, which is due to the reduction in the impact of exchange gains each year; R & D expenses1.
4.0 billion, accounting for 8% of revenue.
08%, a certain improvement in one year.
In the first half of the year, the appreciation of RMB Q1 and the deduction of Q2, Q2’s single-quarter profitability increased significantly, and the gross profit margin was 45.
10%, ten years +4.
30pct, +5 chain.
79 points; net margin is 20.
48% every year -0.
27pct, +5 chain.
The budget project is progressing as scheduled and is about to enter a period of heavy growth.
The company’s existing carbon dioxide production capacity is 3350 tons / year.
The second-phase project 武汉夜网论坛 of the budget is expected to be completed and put into operation at the end of 2019, and it is estimated that the production capacity will be 2,500 tons / year.
At the same time, the construction of environmental protection materials projects with a maximum emission of 7,000 tons / year (4000 tons of Euro 6 and above diesel exhaust emission control ZB series), 3000 tons of flue gas denitration, and MA toluene for refining catalysts, construction is progressing as scheduled, and it is expected to continue in 2021Put into production.
Gradually increase production and overcome gradually, it is expected to seize the possibility of rapid growth in demand driven by the implementation of the National Sixth Standard.
The company has deep cooperation with Zhuangzi Wanfeng, a global leader in exhaust gas treatment catalysts. The 都市夜网 interactive molecular sieve has achieved stable and smooth sales. After the new project is put into production, it will become a major contribution point for performance growth. Deeply plowing into the field of OLED materials, it is expected to replace liquid crystal monomers as a new growth point.
The company’s monocrystalline global sales share is about 15%. It has integrated and stable cooperation with major mixed crystal manufacturers Merck, JNC, and DIC. In the past two years, it has still been intensive production period for high-generation LCD panel production lines. We expect domestic LCD demand in 2019-2021.The average annual growth rate is about 20%, and the single crystal business can still achieve stable growth by supplementing the price.
The company has cultivated in the field of OLED materials for many years. It is roughly estimated that there are more than 500 related patents for OLED materials (including Jiumu Chemical and March Optoelectronics). The parent company and Jiumu Chemical focus on intermediates and materials before sublimation., Especially focusing on the development of the third generation TADF light-emitting materials.
At present, the existing OLED finished materials with independent intellectual property rights are verified by downstream manufacturers. How to quickly put the OLED panel production line into production in the future, the OLED material business is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
[Investment suggestion]It is estimated that the company’s operating income for 19/20/21 will be 32.
00 ppm, net profit attributable to mothers is 5.
99 ppm, EPS is 0.
88 yuan, corresponding to PE is 18/15/12 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.
[Risk reminder]The project’s production progress is less than expected; downstream demand growth is less than expected; uncertainty in batch supply of OLED materials; raw material price changes.
Bank of Nanjing (601009): Improved profitability, improved capital adequacy ratio
2018 Performance Bulletin The 10-year growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers in 2018 14
5%, the fourth quarter of 18 single-quarter growth rate of 11.
7%; annual revenue growth rate of 10 in ten years.
3% in the fourth quarter of 18 in the single quarter half-year growth rate of 15.
ROE increased 无锡夜网 by 0 for the first time.
06ppt to 17.
The performance was in line with expectations, maintaining the Bank of Nanjing’s top pick.
Key points of attention The 2018 revenue growth rate changed from negative to positive earlier than in 2017, mainly due to the improvement in the interest rate difference from the previous quarter, while the scale expansion was stable.
4Q18 analog net interest margin increased by 16bp / 13bp to 2 per second / loop.
35% is expected to come mainly from the decline in interest rates in the capital market and the improvement in debt costs.
At the end of the year, total assets increased by 8 quarter-on-quarter.
3% / 1.
6%, year-on-year growth rate increased by 2 compared with the end of 3Q.
Asset quality is sound.
Defective rate was flat at 0.
89%, up 3bp per year.
The 北京桑拿洗浴保健 provision coverage ratio was basically flat, up 20ppt to 462.
High provisioning coverage provides a safe pad for maintaining double-digit profit growth in the future.
Profitability improved and capital adequacy ratio improved.
Core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio decreased / QoQ increased.
34ppt to 8.
55%, ROAE increased by 0 in advance.
06ppt to 17.
In the absence of external capital replenishment, given the improved profitability, retained earnings can still support the bank’s scale expansion of about 10%, while the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio has no obvious replacement.
Estimates and recommendations Adjust profit forecast according to the performance report and slightly modify 2018 / 19e net profit -0.
7 / + 0.
6% to 111/126 billion.
The company is currently trading at 0.
8x 2019 / 20e P / B, keeping target price unchanged, corresponding to 1.
01x 2019 / 20e P / B, 31% growth space, maintaining recommended level. Risk macro fluctuations exceeded expectations.
Zhefu Holdings (002266) Research Review: Proposed Acquisition of Shenlian Environmental Protection to Enter Hazardous Waste Projects and Commence Operation
I. Overview of the event Recently we participated in the company survey and exchanged ideas with the company leaders on the company’s development strategy.
合肥夜网 Second, the analysis and judgment of the layout of emerging industries is positive. Huadu Nuclear Equipment will benefit from the re-launch of nuclear power by the company in 2008. It started as a hydropower equipment business in the early years.
Under the background of the continuous growth of domestic hydropower installed capacity and the deteriorating competitive landscape in the industry, the company has steadily promoted business transformation and upgrade through the acquisition of equity of Huadu Nuclear Equipment, 2345, Cansun Culture and other companies, and practiced “Big Energy + Internet””Investment in other emerging sectors” development strategy.
The subsidiary Huadu focuses on the development of control rod drive mechanisms. The product is one of the core components of the three generation nuclear power units. After the acquisition, the company’s integration in the manufacturing industry will help it realize the industrialization of technology.
Huadu nuclear equipment has been able to maintain a compound growth rate of about 10% in the past three years, with solid profits. It will fully benefit from the restart of domestic nuclear power in the future.
It is planned to acquire and apply for joint venture environmental protection to enter the hazardous waste industry. It is worth looking forward to the concentrated production of the project. In March 2019, the company will disclose a major asset restructuring plan. It plans to acquire 100% equity of Shenlian Environmental and 40% equity of Shenneng Environmental, which are controlled by major shareholders. The target price is 14.5 billion.Yuan, a total commitment of 2020 performance13.
500 million, corresponding to PE 11x.
Shenlian Environmental Protection adopts advanced high-temperature melting technology, which has strong metal enrichment ability, low landfill cost and outstanding profitability.
According to the company’s response to the exchange’s inquiry in September, Shenneng Environmental Protection 40, which was put into operation in February this year, announced that the capacity of hazardous waste (including solid waste) projects has climbed well, 77 Taixing Shenlian, 30 Power Plant Lanxi self-supporting projects are expected toApplying for hazardous waste trial operation licenses in February and April 2020 will continue to provide momentum for the company’s profit growth.
Hydropower equipment reduces losses, investment income is stable, and industry investment returns are good. The competition in the hydropower equipment industry continues to intensify. In 2018, the company successfully reduced hydropower equipment losses by exploring overseas markets and reducing costs.With a construction period of 59 months, the contracted electricity price is high, and the additional purchased electricity is large, which will increase the company’s profit after commissioning.
In terms of industrial investment, the company’s investment in Huadu Nuclear Equipment, 234, 5 and Canstar Culture is in good profit and is expected to continue to contribute to profit.
Third, the investment proposal is optimistic about the sustainable release of the potential of Shenneng Environmental Protection under the dividend of hazardous waste industry. Assuming that the issue can be implemented within the year, is it expected (after regeneration) in 2019?
EPS is 0 in 2021.
35, corresponding to the current consistent PE22 / 14 / 12x, the company’s current PB 2.
55x, located in the bottom range since listing. At the same time, the fundamentals have changed positively. The performance growth is worth looking forward to. The first coverage is given, and a “recommended” rating is given.
4. Risk warnings: 1. Asset injection matters are less than expected; 2. Nuclear power restart progress is less than expected; 3. Political risks of overseas business.
Cheap is the last word
Jiang Chao: Why are we optimistic about the stock market and bearish on the housing market?
Cheap is the last word
Jiang Chao: Why are we optimistic about the stock market and bearish on the housing market?
Cheap is the last word!
姜超宏观债券研究 单纯从估值水平来看，目前中国各类资产当中“股>债>现金黄金>房”，以股市最具投资价值、债市类资产次之，现金和黄金再次，而The housing market has the least investment value.
Second, they say that safety is paramount, and cash is not king.
At the end of 18 years, based on the expectation that the economy will continue to decline and frequent credit risks, the mainstream view is that in the future, the safety of funds should be given priority, and safe assets such as cash, gold, and government bonds are preferred.
But so far, from the performance of large-scale assets, the performance of safe assets is actually not outstanding.
Take Yu’ebao as an example, the annualized rate of return since this year is about 2.
6%, the absolute return realized by early February is about 0.
London gold prices rose by 3.
05%, but because the yuan appreciated by 2.
3%, so the price of RMB gold rose by only 0 in January.
At the end of last year, Treasury bonds were widely favored. So far, the CSI Treasury Bond Index ‘s absolute increase this year is about 1%.
That is to say, if you hold a national debt index in China this year, you can get about 1% return; if you hold cash and RMB gold, the return rate is about 0.
However, if you hold stock assets, the main stock index of A shares has so far increased by more than 5%, of which the Shanghai Stock Index has increased by 5% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has increased by 7.
In other words, the performance of safe assets so far is far less than that of stock assets, and cash is not king.
Third, the bond market is very popular, but interest rates are too low.
Why have safe assets not performed as well as expected this year?
The reason is actually the purchase price. The current security assets are not cheap.
For example, in the case of cash assets, when investing, we mean that cash is not paper money in the wallet, but generally refers to a type of interest-generating asset that can be withdrawn at any time.
Take Yu’ebao as an example. It was established in 2013. Except for the initial period and part of 2016, its annualized rate of return is basically 2.
More than 5%, the highest reached 7% in 2013, and also reached more than 4% in the second half of 2017 and the beginning of 18, but the current yield is only 2.
6%, near the historical low.
Therefore, if you purchase 100 yuan of Yu’ebao in 13 years, you can get more than 6 yuan of interest for 1 year.
Even if you bought 100 Yuan Yu’e Bao in the beginning of 18, the interest income for 1 year is about 4 Yuan.
But if you buy a 100 yuan Yu’e Bao now, the interest income for holding 1 year is only 2.
About 6 yuan, which means that the current Yu’e Bao is actually very expensive, so we can’t earn any interest at all!
Looking at the bond market again, why is the 19-year Treasury bond return rate likely to be much lower than 18 years?
The duration of the CSI Treasury Bond Index is about 5 years, so it can be regarded as a 5-year Treasury bond.
The interest rate of China’s 5-year government bonds at the beginning of 2018 was 3.
84%, so holding 1 year of interest income is 3.
At the end of 2018, the 5-year Treasury bond rate fell to 2.96%, the interest rate fell by 88bp within 1 year.
The price of bonds and interest rates are in the opposite direction. A downward interest rate represents an increase in bond prices, and the longer the term, the more it rises. The 5-year period is equivalent to a five-fold increase, so 0.
The 88% interest rate reduction is multiplied by a factor of five, which equates to a four-year increase in the price of 5-year government bonds.
At 4%, interest income plus capital gains yields 18-year government bonds that exceed 8%.
However, after the decline in interest rate growth over the past year, the interest rate on 5-year Treasury bonds, currently around 3%, is already near its historical low.
In the past 10 years, except for the short-term period of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, the interest rate of 5-year government bonds was rarely less than 2%, and most of the time it was at 2.
5% or more.
Therefore, it can even be predicted that the 5-year Treasury bond rate this year can be substituted.
With a historically low 5%, the rate of interest rate decline is only 46bp, and the corresponding price increase is 2.
3%, plus 2.
With a coupon of 96%, the expected rate of return for holding 1 year is only about 5%, which is much lower than 18 years.
Why did the expected yield on holding Treasury bonds drop sharply in 19 years?
The reason is that the overall bond interest rate is close to historical lows, which is equivalent to the relatively high price of national bonds in history, which is too expensive to sell, and it is certainly not easy to make a lot of money.
Therefore, although all economic growth, downside growth, and downside risks have benefited national debt since the beginning of this year, treasury bonds have not risen, and the decline in national interest rates has been quite limited.The main futures contract began to continue after hitting a high point on January 8, for no reason, because the current government bond rate is too low, which has fully reflected the pessimistic expectations of the market.
Fourth, it is estimated that the historical low level, A shares are cheap enough.
Since 19 years, both the downturn in economic growth and the frequent occurrence of risk events have actually been detrimental to the stock market, especially after the outbreak of a serious event of write-down of goodwill, which has caused the market to panic about the sharp decline in the performance of listed companies.
However, the performance of A-shares has been quite strong since this year. The current yield is far higher than the bond market. Even the best-performing assets in the bond market are convertible bonds related to the stock market.3%, far more than the rise in national debt.
Why doesn’t the stock market rise instead?
An important reason is that A shares are currently sold very cheaply.
How to define a consistent height?
Not to look at the point, even to estimate.
Generally, people look at the performance of A shares, and habitually lower them than the evidence index.
The current Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is about 2600 points, which has fallen by more than half from the record high of 6124 points.
However, some people also said that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell to over 1664 points in 2008, and even fell below 1,000 points in 2005. Therefore, the current 2600 points of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index are not particularly cheap and may fall in the future.
But if we just use the point of the stock index to predict the level, then US stocks cannot understand.
Because the U.S. stock index is hitting record highs almost every year, the current S & P 500 index is as high as 2,700 points, and the lowest has fallen to 666 points 10 years ago, but only 100 points 40 years ago. If you only look at the stock index, then the U.S. stock marketIt looks like a crazy bubble.
However, in fact, 50% of the global stock funds are currently allocated in the US market for a long time. The stock god Buffett also holds US stocks for a long time. These smart people have used actions to tell us that the US stocks in their eyes have long-term investment value. This shows that US stocksThe bubble is not as scary as simply looking at the stock index.
The reason is that what is really reasonable to expect is not simply the price we pay, but also the return that the stock market can provide.
For listed companies, after we buy stocks, listed companies will form income through daily operations, which is actually our return on investment.
Therefore, the really reasonable level is the ratio of compliance to earnings, which is the price-earnings ratio (PE).
Therefore, although the US S & P 500 Index is currently as high as 2700 points, its PE is estimated to be about 20 times, while the average of the S & P 500 Index over the past 150 years is estimated to be 16 times, which means that although the US stock market has experienced years of growth, But in fact the degree of foaming is quite limited.
Looking at A shares in terms of price-earnings ratio is currently cheaper than in the past two big bear markets.
If you look at the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, 998 points in 2005 and 1664 points in 2008 are much lower than the current 2600 points.
But if you look at the price-earnings ratio, the PE index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2005 was 17 times, and the lowest price-earnings ratio in 2008 was over 13 times, which is actually higher than the current valuation of 11 times.
This means that from the perspective of price-earnings ratio, the current A shares are much cheaper than the lowest point in the past two big bear markets.
Overestimating is hard to make money, and underestimating makes money.
In fact, the average 杭州夜网 price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has been as high as 43 times over the past 30 years since China’s A-shares were born. Among them, the price-earnings ratio in the early 1990s exceeded 100 times, and the price-earnings ratio in the early 2000s exceeded 60 times.Stocks have been in the process of digesting incremental growth for a short period of time. As a result, the return on investment of A-shares looks poor.
However, if you grasp the center of the A stock market’s earnings ratio in each era and choose to buy at a low price, you can actually make money.
For example, the average price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index increased by 80 times in the 1990s. The cheapest period was 24 times in 1995. If you bought A shares in 1995, you could triple the price by 1999. In 2000, the average market surplus of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index increased 37 times, the cheapest of which was twice, one was 17 times in October 2005, and the other was 13 times in October 2008. Buying A shares at these two times,By the end of 2009, they have tripled and doubled.
In the 2010s, the average price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index increased by 14 times, the cheapest of which was twice, one was 9 times of April 2014. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell below 2000 in that month. At that time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index still earned30%.
The other time was 11 times in December 18, and the growth of A shares since 19 years seems to be supported by no economic data. In fact, there is a good reason, that is, it is cheap enough.
Fifth, rent and sales are lower than innovation, and house prices are actually very expensive.
When it comes to investment opportunities, we must not mention real estate, and our view is as always, that is, the current housing market lacks investment value.
Why do you say that?
The reason is actually very simple, because the estimate of the house is too expensive.
How to lower the level of house prices?
An important reference for the price-earnings ratio that has been predicted below the price level is the return on rent.
I came to Shanghai myself in 2005. I have been renting a house since the beginning. I remember renting it in Zhuyuan District of Pudong Century Avenue in 2007. At that time, the house was about 1.
50,000 yuan / square meter, the house we rent is about 60 square meters, and the monthly rent is 2,600 yuan, equivalent to a rental return of about 3.
Now the house price in this neighborhood is about 8 million / square meter, the monthly rent of a 60 square meter house is about 6000 yuan, and the rental return rate is about 1.
According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate, the average rental return rate of the four major first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in early 2008 was 3.
5%, replacing 1 by the end of 18 years.
6%, which is similar to our observation.
If the rental yield rate is reversed, the housing price can be regarded as an estimate of the housing market. Therefore, the value of the housing market in China’s first-tier cities in 2008 was about 29 times, and by the end of 18 it had risen to 62 times. This level is in the past.Near the 10-year high.
Second-hand housing prices have changed from rising to falling.
When researching real estate in China, it is very likely that reliable house price data cannot be found.
The Bureau of Statistics will announce the increase in the prices of new and second-hand housing in 70 cities every month. According to its published data, after the second half of 18, the price of new and second-hand housing in the country will increase sequentially, and the rise in house prices will obviously rebound.
But after the second half of last year, I have been to many cities across the country, including Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Zhuhai, Guiyang, etc. The information I have learned is that second-hand housing everywhere is declining, and the decline is not small.
In view of the negative growth in the area of commercial housing sales nationwide in the fourth quarter of last year, and the decline in January of 1919 is still expanding, how can prices rise if the houses are not sold, the statistics bureau’s house prices are difficult to convince.
In addition to the Bureau of Statistics, many companies and industry associations also release statistics on house prices. For example, the house price index of Zhongyuan Real Estate shows that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Tianjin, Chengdu, and other second-hand housing in six major cities experienced a significant decline in the second half of last year.Is 5%.
In addition, data released by Beijing Guoxinda Data Corporation, China Real Estate Appraiser and Real Estate Brokers Institute, and Tsinghua University Hang Lung Real Estate Research Institute show that the listing price of second-hand housing in 376 cities across the country has fallen by 3% in the past 4 months, of which 19 yearsThe decline in January was 0.
These enterprise-level data may be closer to the truth.
Therefore, although many people have high expectations for the 19-year property market and believe that the policy will resume the old way of stimulating real estate, at least this year, holding property should be losing money.
6. In the past, the currency was oversupply and the housing market led the overall performance of domestic large-scale assets since this year. The stock market is the best, the bond market is the second, cash and gold are the second, and the housing market is the bottom. This is completely different from the performance of the past decade.
In the era of currency oversupply, the housing market has benefited the most.
In the past decade, China’s housing market has been the biggest winner in asset allocation.
According to the Central Plains Real Estate Price Index, the average price of second-hand housing in four first-tier cities has increased by 3 since the beginning of 2008.
6 times, an average annual increase of 12%.
The stock market is the biggest loser in asset allocation. After peaking in 2007, the stock market has gradually fallen by more than half, far behind the housing market.
In fact, a similar phenomenon has happened in the United States.
Don’t look at U.S. stocks now being so bullish, but from 1964 to 1979, U.S. stocks did not rise for 16 years.
The S & P 500 index closed at 85 points in 1964 and 108 points by the end of 1979, which means that the S & P 500 index rose by only 27% in 16 years, with an average annual increase of less than 2%.
In the same period, US house prices rose by 3.
3 times, an average annual increase of 8.
3%, far better than the stock market.
In fact, in these two periods, although they are in different countries, there is a phenomenon that is particularly similar, both of which are currency oversupply.
The average currency of China in the past ten years has grown by 15%, while the currency of the United States in the 1960s / 70s has maintained a double-digit growth rate for a long time.
The housing market is expected to rise and the stock market is expected to shrink.
Why is the housing market the most beneficial in the era of currency oversupply, and the stock market will be damaged?
We need to analyze the reasons behind rising house prices and falling stock markets.
From the perspective of rent-sale ratio, changes in house prices can be broken down into two parts, one is the estimated change in the housing market represented by the rent-sale ratio, and the other is the change in rent.
From the perspective of price-earnings ratio, continuous changes can also be broken down into two parts, one is the changes in the stock market represented by the price-earnings ratio, and the other is the changes in corporate profits.
We find that in the above two periods, the growth of the housing market has benefited from both an estimated increase and an increase in rents, while the decline in the stock market is mainly an estimated decrease. In fact, corporate profits have risen significantly.
For example, from 64 to 79, house prices in the United States increased by 3.
5 times, of which rents have increased by 2.
8 times, another part of the price increase comes from the increase in the valuation of the housing market.
During this period, the corporate earnings of the S & P 500 in the United States also tripled, but because the S & P 500’s estimate replaced 8 times from 19 times in the same period, the overall US stocks barely rose.
From 2007 to 18, house prices in first-tier cities in China increased by an average of 3.
6 times, of which house prices and rents are estimated to have doubled compared to the representative housing market, but actually only 1.
8 times from the increase in rent.
In the same period, the profits of Chinese A-share listed companies increased by 2.
8 times, but because the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index’s estimate has dropped from 55 times to 11 times, the stock market has still fallen by half.
In other words, in the 1960s and 1970s and China, the housing market has increased much faster than the stock market in the past decade, but the reason is not because the earnings growth of listed companies in the stock market is not as fast as the rise in rents, and because the housing market valuation is increasing, andStock market estimates are shrinking.
This is actually related to currency oversupply, because the high currency growth has led to high expectations, so the estimate of the housing market has continued to increase.
High yields have brought high interest rates. The interest rates of US Treasury bonds in the 1970s exceeded 10%. China’s past shadow banks can also provide quasi-risk-free returns of more than 10%, which significantly reduces the attractiveness of the stock market. It is estimated thatcompression.
Seven, the future currency growth will be low, and the stock market is more hopeful that many people are used to deriving the future based on historical experience: because the bond market in the past year has been a big bull market, so early in the year 19 bonds have been sold.There are 4 bond funds in the name, only one equity fund, and the rest are index or hybrid funds.
Because of the big bull market of real estate in the past 10 years, many people have become a belief in the rise in house prices.
Because the Shanghai index has barely risen in the past 17 years, many people think that the Chinese stock market will never rise.
In the United States in 1979, because the stock market had not risen for many years, “Business Week” wrote a famous article “Death of Equity”, arguing that young people were moving away from the stock market.It can easily beat the stock market, and history has proven that buying a house can resist confrontation, and buying stocks has nothing to gain.
This is actually surprisingly similar to China’s current market sentiment.
But in hindsight, this judgment of Business Week was actually very wrong.
From the beginning of 1980 to the present, the S & P 500 has risen as much as 25 times, with an average annual increase of up to 8.
The average annual return of holders of 10-year government bonds during the same period is about 6.
3%, the average currency interest rate is about 4.
8%, while the average annual rate of return on holding property is only 4.
3% (the increase in the median price of new home sales), which shows that investing in stock assets in the United States in the past 40 years is the best choice, and real estate is actually the worst performing asset, even cash can not beat.
Stock market valuations reversed and profits outweighed rents.
Why is there such a change?
First, the most important reason is the change in estimates.
After the 1980s, the S & P 500’s estimate rose from 8x to 20x, and this alone provided 2.
The stock market rose by a factor of five, while rental returns in the United States remained largely unchanged during the same period.
The actual difference comes from changes in earnings.
In the 1960s and 1970s, the average annual increase in rent prices in the United States was as high as 7%, which was roughly the same as the growth rate of corporate profits.
However, after the 1980s, the annual increase in rent prices in the United States was only about 4%, which was far lower than the 6% growth rate of corporate profits.
Therefore, over the past 40 years, the price of rents in the United States has increased fivefold since 1980, while corporate profits have increased tenfold.
In other words, one of the reasons why the U.S. stock market rose by a factor of 25 after the 1980s is much higher than the 5 times increase in the housing market over the same period. One of the reasons is that the stock market ‘s valuation has recovered by more than 2.
5 times, the second reason is that corporate profits have grown steadily, which is 2 times more than rent.
Collecting currency and reducing tax burdens is good for stock market performance.
The key factor behind this change is actually the change in the growth rate of the U.S. currency, from a high-growth currency to a low-growth era.
After the 1980s, the growth rate of US currency dropped from double digits to about 6% single digits, and the growth rate was almost cut in half.
The decline in currency growth has drastically reduced inflation expectations, and has driven the United States into the era of low interest rates.
The high interest rate was the main cause of the decline in the US stock market valuation in the 1970s. After the interest rate fell, the stock market valuation was obviously repaired.
Judging from the valuation level alone, at present, China’s various types of assets are “shares> debt> cash gold> rooms”. The stock market has the most investment value, followed by bond market assets, cash and gold again, and the housing market has the least investment value.