Xinhecheng (002001): Changes in performance caused by changes in product prices Under construction and planning projects contain huge growth momentum

Xinhecheng (002001): Changes in performance caused by changes in product prices Under construction and planning projects contain huge growth momentum

The event company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 quarterly report on the evening of April 28, 2019.

Annual Report 2018: Reports that sustainable companies achieved revenue 86.

8 ‰, a 39% increase in ten years; net profit attributable to mothers to be achieved 30.

8 ‰, an increase of 81% in ten years; net profit after deduction to non-returned mother 28.

9 ‰, an increase of 75% in ten years; net cash flow from operating activities was 36.

6 trillion, an increase of 177% in ten years; the expected average ROE of 20 was achieved.

5%, rising by 0 every year.

67 units.

2019 first quarter report: 2019Q1 company achieved revenue of 18.

4 ‰, an average of 40% over ten years; net profit attributable to mothers was achieved5.

1 ‰, with a ten-year average growth rate of 66%; net profit after deduction for non-returning mothers4.

USD 800 million, an average of 68% over ten years; net cash flow from operating activities2.

$ 500 million, compared to a previous budget of 35%; achieving expected average return on net assets3.

11%, more than ten years.

2 units.

Dividend: 10 shares of the company’s proposed enzyme will be paid out 7.

00 yuan, a total of about 1.5 billion yuan in dividends.

A brief comment on the increase in product prices led to a significant increase in 18 performance, and a higher base caused the company’s performance growth from 19Q1 to 2018, mainly due to the impact of the BASF accident at the end of 2017 leading to the increase in VA, VE and flavor and fragrance prices, VA, VE The average prices in 2018 were 701 and 59 yuan / kg, which increased by 100% and 6% over 2017, 四川耍耍网 respectively.

The increase was especially the highest in the first quarter of 2018. The average price of VA and VE in 2018Q1 was as high as 1,348 yuan and 108 yuan / kg, all at historical highs.

The company’s Q1-4 single-quarter results were 14 respectively.

9, 5.

6,4.

8, 5.

At 4 ppm, Q1 contributed nearly half of its annual performance in a single quarter.

Affected by rising product prices, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2018 was 53.

4%, an increase of 2 per year.

9 units; gross profit 46.

4 ‰, an increase of 14 in ten years.

900 million.

In terms of period expenses, the reported scale company sales, management + R & D, and financial expenses are 2 respectively.

5, 8.

1, 0.

200 million, change 19%, 35%, -84% each year.

The reported company’s R & D expenses increased by 36%, and 佛山桑拿网 the number of R & D personnel increased by 52%, indicating that the company’s R & D efforts have continued to increase.

In terms of cash flow, the company’s current net ratio of reported performance is 118% and 95% respectively, and it has increased by 44 and 15 ratios at the same time. The significant increase in current net ratio is mainly due to the significant increase in accounts payable:Account balance 13.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 39% in ten years.

The company’s performance in the first quarter of 2019 deviated, mainly due to the high base in Q1 of 2018. From the point of view of 19Q1 and 18Q4, the changes in revenue, net profit attributable to non-net profit, and deducted non-net profit were -7%,6%, + 3%, the change is basically stable.

The projects under construction and planning contain huge growth momentum, and the projects under construction have begun to show huge profits from 2017 to 2018, which has enabled the company to accumulate substantial capital. The company’s book cash at the end of the 2019Q1 reporting period was approximately 26.0 million yuan, other current assets of about 46.

600 million, a total of 72.

600 million.

The rich cash reserves and the company’s estimated annual net cash flow of more than US $ 2 billion enable the company to invest in a large number of new projects. According to our statistics, since the beginning of 2018, the company’s total investment in new EIA projects has exceeded 20 billion.The US dollar, huge growth momentum is brewing.

At the end of the 2019Q1 reporting period, the company had 48 projects under construction.

700 million, the ratio of construction in progress / fixed assets reached 92%, which is considerable for Xinhecheng with a market value of 41.1 billion.

The structure of VA oligomeric urethane dandruff is gradually stabilized, the bargaining power is increased, and the price has entered a new era. Due to the complex process of vitamin A synthesis, high technical barriers, difficult to enter machinery, and alternate supply side reforms, the oligopoly scalp in the industry has gradually increased and stabilized.CR4 is currently as high as 78%.
We judge that vitamin A prices have entered a new era, and around 300 yuan has become a new bottom area.

VA prices continued to decrease at the end of 2018. It is expected that dealers’ inventory is low, and the increase in the concentration of more industries has significantly improved the bargaining power of oligarchs. On April 9, the price replaced 285 yuan / kg on April 10.VA manufacturers collectively stopped reporting, prices rebounded rapidly, and eventually stabilized at around 365 yuan / kg before DSM stopped production.

We believe that the VA industry has entered a new era after undergoing supply-side reforms and BASF accidents. Around 300 yuan has become a new price bottom area. In fact, after the BASF accident, the time when the VA price was below 300 yuan has never exceeded 1 Months.

On April 25th, market news said that DSM’s Swiss factory suspended production for 2-3 months due to contaminated strains of wastewater treatment. During this period, VA products were suspended from reporting.

Affected by this news, the VA quote increased from 360-390 yuan / kg to 370-400 yuan / kg.

DSM has a total capacity of about 7,500 tons of vitamin A. There are two production bases in Switzerland and Shanghai. The production of vitamin A oil in the Shanghai base is 600 tons, and the production capacity of vitamin A powder is 1,560 tons. It can be estimated that the production of vitamin A in the Swiss base is about 4,000 tons, accounting for global vitaminA total capacity is about 10%.

Although the swine fever has affected the demand side to some extent, according to our calculations, about 34% of downstream Virginia is used for pig feed, and the domestic pig inventory has been reduced by 19%, which has an impact on the domestic VA demand side of about 6.

5%, the global impact is expected to be less than 4%, the distance between the demand side is far less than the impact of DSM production suspension on the supply side, the DSM production suspension will bring further increase in VA prices.

The Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation on methionine, and the price bottomed out. On April 10, 2019, the Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation on methionine (methionine) originating in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan.

Almost all methionine capacity in Asia is concentrated in China, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia.

According to our calculations, the current maximum internal methionine output is about 34 euros. Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia have 23, 15, and 8 substitutions respectively. The current capacity of anti-dumping regions for methionine is 46 substitutions, accounting for 59% in Asia and 24% in the world.
In terms of new production capacity, in 2018, Sumitomo Japan for 10 years, Evonik Singapore for 15-2019 and 2020, and Citi Malaysia 8 in 2020 were in the anti-dumping investigation area.

Since February 2017, the price of solid methionine has basically remained below the bottom of 25 yuan / kg. After April 2018, it fell below the 20 yuan / kg mark and once fell to 17 yuan / kg.On April 9, solid methionine dropped to 16.

9 yuan / kg, a record low.

Such prices have approached the cost red line of some manufacturers. Under the circumstances that the price is in a downward channel for a long time, the probability of dealers’ inventory is also at a high level. Therefore, as soon as the anti-dumping news comes out, the price will immediately bottom out. The current price of solid eggs and liquid eggs is 19.

5, 15.

0 yuan / kg, an increase of 2 compared with before anti-dumping.

6, 0.

5 yuan / kg.

The first phase of the company’s 5-crystal methionine project was successfully trial-produced in January 2017. In July 2017, the second phase was fully achieved. 10 Phase 10 is expected to start construction in 2018 and is expected to start production in 2019-2020. Phase 3 15 is expected to start production in 2021.
By then, the company’s production capacity of methionine will reach 30.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019 and 2020 will be 26 respectively.

9, 35.

4 ‰, corresponding to 15, 12 times of PE, maintaining the overweight rating.